Realtor.com forecasts a potential resurgence in specific regions of the Midwest and Southern California for the upcoming year.
This year witnessed an unprecedented low in home sales, setting a new record in the real estate market. However, signs indicate a potential shift in the upcoming year, particularly in select cities.
According to Realtor.com's annual forecast, there's anticipation for changes in home sales prices and volumes across the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas. The analysis from the real estate listing site highlights areas expected to see substantial growth in both prices and sales in 2024.
Danielle Hale, Realtor.com's chief economist, told Business Insider, "As affordability begins to improve, homebuyers seek markets offering lower prices." She anticipates double-digit sales growth in some pricier markets as sales rebound from historic lows, aided by expectedly easing mortgage rates. The forecast expects rates to retreat to the mid-6 percent range, attracting more buyers, bolstering inventory, and driving sales. Hale adds, "The return of lower mortgage rates will reignite buyer demand."
Interestingly, half of the top 10 cities identified are on the West Coast, where housing affordability hit a 16-year low in Q2 2023. Five California metros, primarily in the southern region, including Bakersfield and the Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim areas, are anticipated to experience a rebound.
Projections indicate that five Southern California markets will experience significant surges in both home sales and price gains in 2024.
Massachusetts boasts two metros within the top 10 rankings. Specifically, Springfield and Worcester stand out, drawing buyers due to their affordability in contrast to Boston. Predictions suggest Springfield's market could see a 10.5 percent increase in 2024, accompanied by a 4.2 percent rise in home sales. Meanwhile, Worcester anticipates a 9.1 percent growth, with home prices expected to climb by 4.8 percent, notes Nick McNeil, a Massachusetts-based real estate broker at McNeil Real Estate. Among the top 10 are also Rochester, New York, and Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Ranked as the top housing market for the upcoming year is—drum roll, please!—Toledo, Ohio. Forecasts indicate a substantial 14 percent increase in the market, with an 8.3 percent surge in home sales, making it among the eight metros expected to experience double-digit sales growth in 2024. Toledo currently boasts a median home price of $200,000, significantly lower than the U.S. median of $420,000. Danielle Hale notes, "It’s less prone to the wild swings we’ve seen in other markets. The highs weren’t as high, and the lows weren’t as low—so that’s one of the reasons they’re going to start to recover first.
The Top 10 Real Estate Markets of 2024
Toledo, Ohio
Oxnard/Thousand Oaks/ Ventura, California
Rochester, New York
San Diego/Chula Vista/Carlsbad, California
Riverside/San Bernardino/Ontario, California
Bakersfield, California
Springfield, Massachusetts
Worcester, Massachusetts/Connecticut
Grand Rapids/Kentwood, Michigan
Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim, California
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